In a Middle East shifting steadily from insurgency to statehood, the imagery of PKK fighters setting fire to their rifles resonated well beyond the Kurdish mountains. The symbolic gesture marked the end of a decades-long armed struggle and declared a definitive ideological departure from militancy. It was not driven by a military defeat or international coercion, but by an intellectual reckoning: the realization that the era of armed nonstate actors, long legitimized by historical grievances and regional chaos, is fading. Hezbollah, however, remains a glaring exception to this trend – one that increasingly places it at odds with a transforming region and a weary domestic population.

Across Iraq, Lebanon, and Gaza, the ground is shifting. In Baghdad, where the political equilibrium remains fragile, the government has nonetheless reaffirmed its commitment to national sovereignty. It has successfully resisted the influence of militias aligned with the so-called “axis of resistance” and rejected the idea that nonstate groups should hold weapons independent of the central command. The message is clear: legitimacy stems from the state, not the gun.

In Gaza, Hamas faces a crushing political and military defeat in the aftermath of its latest war with Israel. Large portions of the Gaza Strip have slipped from its control, and its military arsenal – once a symbol of resistance – is increasingly seen by its own people as a liability. The post-war consensus among all relevant stakeholders now includes one non-negotiable clause: the neutralization of Hamas’s military capacity. Once thought to be permanent actors in their respective regions, armed resistance movements like Hamas and the PKK are finding themselves stripped of both relevance and local support.

Yet, amid this regional recalibration, Hezbollah clings to a narrative that is beginning to crumble under its own contradictions. Its 2024........

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