The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has reached unprecedented lows in recent years, driven by escalating security concerns, diplomatic deadlocks, and the looming threat of militancy. The latest development in this fraught history occurred in early 2025, when Pakistan’s Air Force launched a series of airstrikes on Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) hideouts in the volatile border regions between the two nations. This military operation, executed as a reprisal for a fatal TTP attack on Pakistani forces, has intensified tensions that have been building for decades. This article examines three critical factors that have contributed to the deterioration of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan: the cross-border nature of the insurgency, Pakistan’s military response, and the broader geopolitical consequences of their strained relationship.

The Cross-Border Insurgency: A Perpetual Thorn

The primary source of tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan stems from the porous and frequently lawless border areas they share. This 2,600-kilometre-long frontier, characterised by ethnic complexities and fragmented political control, has long served as a sanctuary for militant groups, notably the TTP. The TTP, an extremist organisation based in Pakistan that emerged in 2007, has operated unchecked within Afghanistan’s border regions, carrying out deadly assaults on Pakistani military personnel and civilians.

While the Afghan Taliban initially permitted the TTP to establish safe havens in Afghanistan following their return to power in Kabul in 2021, they have become increasingly reluctant to restrain the group’s activities. For Pakistan, this has created a strategic dilemma. Islamabad views the TTP as a direct threat to its national security, with operatives now operating freely in the tribal regions and beyond. Pakistani officials estimate that the TTP has approximately 6,000 fighters, and their sustained presence in Afghanistan has contributed to rising cross-border violence. In 2023, Pakistan experienced one of its deadliest years, with over 650 attacks—most of which were attributed to the TTP and allied insurgent factions. The TTP’s claim of responsibility for the deaths of 16 Pakistani soldiers in a 2024 attack in South Waziristan, one of the deadliest assaults on........

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