In a stark warning to markets and policymakers alike, JPMorgan has raised alarms about the possibility of a recession in the United States in 2025, attributing the risk primarily to President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies. According to the investment bank’s chief global economist, Bruce Kasman, there is now a 40% chance that the US could slip into a recession next year, with the potential for even greater economic consequences if Trump’s proposed tariffs on key trading partners come into full effect. Kasman’s remarks, made during a press briefing in Singapore on March 12, underscore the growing uncertainty surrounding the US economy as the consequences of Trump’s trade tactics start to unfold.

JPMorgan’s warning is an echo of broader concerns that Trump’s protectionist stance could harm the economic trajectory of the US in the coming months. Kasman, who initially pegged the recession risk at 30% at the start of the year, indicated that the risk of a downturn has increased as Trump’s trade policies become more pronounced. The possibility of tariffs escalating as planned, particularly the reciprocal tariffs on countries like China, Canada, and Mexico, has sparked unease in both financial markets and the global economy.

At the heart of JPMorgan’s warning is the growing expectation that Trump’s sweeping tariff measures could stifle global trade and undermine US economic growth. The tariffs, particularly the 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports that went into effect on March 12, have already drawn responses from the European Union and Canada, which imposed their own retaliatory tariffs in response. The steel and aluminum tariffs are just a fraction of the broader trade measures that Trump has proposed as part of his “America First” agenda, which seeks to reduce the US trade deficit and encourage domestic........

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