Why France is at risk of becoming the new sick man of Europe
Some people in France were upset to learn this week that their political chaos was being laughed at… by the Italians.
In less than two years France has gone through five prime ministers, a political feat unsurpassed even in Rome's times of post-war political turbulence.
And now, the French parliament – reconfigured after the president's decision to hold a snap election in July 2024 – is struggling to produce a majority capable of passing a budget.
Add to this a general strike on Thursday called by unions opposed to previous budget proposals.
Newspapers in Rome and Turin exhibited a distinct gioia maligna (malicious joy) in recounting recent events.
There was the humiliation of the recently departed Prime Minister François Bayrou, the warnings of spiralling debt and the prospect of the French economy needing to be bailed out by the IMF.
But most of all, there was the fading glory of the president, Emmanuel Macron.
"So where is the grandeur now?" asked Il Messaggero.
The cost of servicing national debt this year is estimated to be €67 billion - it now consumes more money than all government departments except education and defence.
Forecasts suggest that by the end of the decade it will outstrip even them, reaching €100 billion a year.
Last Friday, the ratings agency Fitch downgraded French debt, potentially making it more expensive for the French government to borrow, reflecting growing doubts about the country's stability and ability to service that debt.
The possibility of having to turn, cap in hand, to the International Monetary Fund for a loan or to require intervention from the European Central Bank, is no longer fanciful.
And all this against a background of international turmoil: war in Europe, disengagement by the Americans, the inexorable rise of populism.
Last Wednesday there was a national day of protest organised by a group called Bloquons Tout (Let's Block Everything). Hijacked by the far-left, it made little impact bar some high-visibility street clashes.
But a much bigger test came yesterday, with unions and left-wing parties organising mass demonstrations against the government's plans.
In the words of veteran political commentator Nicolas Baverez: "At this critical moment, when the very sovereignty and freedom of France and Europe are at stake, France finds itself paralysed by chaos, impotence and debt."
President Macron insists he can extricate the country from the mess but he has just 18 months remaining of his second term.
One possibility is that the country's inherent strengths – its wealth, infrastructure, institutional resilience – will see it through what many feel is a historic turning-point.
But there is another scenario: that it emerges permanently weakened, prey to........
© BBC
