The recent decision by US President Donald Trump to impose a 50% tariff on Indian imports—citing New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil—marks a turning point not only in US-India relations but in the global economic and geopolitical landscape. While the move may appear to be a targeted economic sanction, its ripple effects could be far-reaching, with consequences that extend well beyond bilateral trade.

India, now the world’s most populous country, is not just a regional power—it is a global economic engine. Its massive labor force, growing manufacturing sector, and expanding middle class make it a key player in global supply chains. Imposing high tariffs on Indian goods is not a minor adjustment; it is a tectonic shift. The economic and political aftershocks of this decision will reverberate across continents.

From an economic standpoint, the immediate impact on India could be severe. The United States is one of the largest export markets for Indian goods, ranging from textiles and pharmaceuticals to industrial chemicals and seafood. Losing access to this market—or facing prohibitive tariffs—will likely reduce India’s export revenues, weaken the rupee, and slow down GDP growth. A depreciated rupee could lead to Indian products........

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