Despite ongoing global economic headwinds, Azerbaijan’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience and strategic foresight, underpinned by diversification policies, prudent fiscal management, and increasing integration into transcontinental trade routes. The latest forecast from Fitch Ratings reinforces this stability, projecting a real GDP growth rate of 2.5% in 2026, driven by the non-oil sector and major public investments.

According to Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director of the Sovereigns and Supranationals Department at Fitch, this growth rate aligns with Azerbaijan’s medium-term economic potential, reflecting a fundamental shift from hydrocarbon dependence toward a more balanced and sustainable economic model.

“The key drivers of growth are the accelerated development of the non-resource sector and large-scale public investments,” Ramakrishnan noted, adding that energy dynamics, while still important, are gradually evolving. As oil production continues its slow decline, natural gas output is expected to partially offset this trend, maintaining energy sector relevance in the broader economic structure.

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