The recent flurry of diplomatic theatre, culminating in President Donald Trump’s abrupt cancellation of a proposed meeting with Vladimir Putin in Budapest and the accompanying US pressure on Moscow, has brought into focus a brittle equilibrium in the Russia–Ukraine war. Dmitry Medvedev’s statement, branding President Trump’s move and the new sanctions as tantamount to a “clear and stark war” against Russia, is the loudly voiced Russian interpretation of what Washington intends as coercive diplomacy rather than a literal declaration of war. Medvedev’s rhetoric is intended both to rally domestic support and to telegraph that Moscow sees a deepening rift with the United States that could alter strategic calculations.

To understand why this particular episode has generated such heat, one must place it within three intersecting dynamics: the transactional impulses of US diplomacy under Donald Trump; Kyiv’s categorical refusal to barter territorial integrity for a faster peace; and European leaders’ efforts to present a coherent front even when US policy fluctuates. Trump’s decision to call off the Budapest summit came after a period in which he signalled openness to direct talks with Putin and simultaneously resisted supplying certain long-range weapons to Ukraine, notably Tomahawk cruise missiles, on the grounds that they might prolong the conflict and provoke escalation, according to the US President's views. It appears that domestic pushback from Congress and pressure from European partners compelled a recalibration, as mentioned by Medvedev: sanctions were levied and the in-person summit was shelved, a sequence that impressed upon Moscow that Washington’s earlier conciliatory posture had limits.

For Kyiv, the principal point of non-negotiability has been territorial sovereignty. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine will not willingly cede land to Russia, and Kyiv has sought to be an indispensable party to any settlement. That stance matters because any US–Russia arrangement reached without........

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