In the shifting geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, Armenia finds itself at a decisive juncture. After decades of isolation, Yerevan is exploring ways to break free from its blockade, open its borders, and reconnect to regional trade and transport networks. Yet the sequencing of these moves, whether to normalise ties with Turkiye first or conclude peace with Azerbaijan, remains fraught with uncertainty, political risk, and financial constraints.

Even Armenia's border crossings are in a state of neglect, which slows down the country's rapid integration process. For over thirty years, the Margara crossing point on the Armenian–Turkish border has stood idle, a rusting monument to hostility born of war and geopolitics. The closure of the border in the early 1990s, triggered by Armenia’s conflict with Azerbaijan, has left the country landlocked, with trade and transport funnelling almost exclusively through Georgia and, until recently, Russia.

The Armenian government, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, now signals a desire to open Margara and restore at least partial economic connectivity with Turkiye. Ankara, for its part, has cautiously hinted at readiness, but with one clear condition: the normalisation track cannot bypass the core issue of peace with Azerbaijan. Turkiye and Azerbaijan coordinate closely, and few in Brussels or Washington expect Ankara to break ranks.

But Yerevan faces a very serious question mark: Is there money for all this, even if things go well? It's not that daunting, though. Even if Ankara and Yerevan could reach an agreement, Armenia faces another fundamental problem: money. Infrastructure on both sides of the border has deteriorated. Roads and checkpoints require modernisation, while the railway link is virtually defunct. The same applies to the Zangazur Corridor, officially branded by some as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which promises to link Azerbaijan with its exclave of........

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