When the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, the newly independent states of the South Caucasus entered an uncertain and volatile era. For Azerbaijan, having regained independence for the second time in its modern history, the challenges were formidable: political instability, economic collapse, and a war that had resulted in the occupation of nearly 20 percent of its internationally recognised territory, including Garabagh and surrounding districts. In the eyes of many foreign observers at the time, the country’s prospects for regional influence were modest at best. Yet, within three decades, Azerbaijan has emerged as a pivotal regional actor, not only as an energy and connectivity hub, but also increasingly as a facilitator of peace and cooperation.

This transformation did not happen by chance. It was anchored in a combination of strategic vision, pragmatic diplomacy, and the political will to leverage geography for national and regional gain.

The “Contract of the Century” — Laying the foundations

Thus, the turning point in Azerbaijan’s post-Soviet trajectory came in 1994, when National Leader Heydar Aliyev signed the landmark “Contract of the Century” with a consortium of leading international oil companies. This agreement opened Azerbaijan’s vast offshore oil reserves to global investment, ushering in billions of dollars in foreign capital and technology. More importantly, it anchored Azerbaijan firmly into the global energy market and set the stage for an ambitious programme of pipeline diplomacy.

In subsequent years, projects such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum (BTE) gas pipeline, and later the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), including its European legs, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), would transform Azerbaijan into a critical supplier of energy to Europe. This role has only grown more strategic in light of recent global energy crises, as European countries seek to diversify away from Russian energy dependency.

Armenia’s missed opportunities

While Azerbaijan capitalised on these opportunities, Armenia, which at the time maintained a policy of........

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