The global energy market has spent much of the past two decades fixated on the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, while a quieter and potentially more unpredictable risk is emerging closer to Europe’s doorstep. The Black Sea, long regarded as a secondary theatre in global energy logistics, is rapidly becoming a focal point of concern as geopolitical tensions, asymmetric warfare and logistical fragilities converge.

Recent incidents involving unidentified aerial strikes on commercial vessels portray a shift in the nature of risk. Unlike traditional naval threats, the growing use of drones introduces a level of ambiguity that complicates both deterrence and response. In the context of the ongoing war involving Russia and Ukraine, it is widely understood that both sides possess and actively deploy unmanned aerial systems capable of targeting infrastructure and shipping. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated the ability to strike deep into Russian controlled territory, including energy infrastructure and naval assets, while Russia has used drones extensively to target Ukrainian ports and logistics hubs. In such an environment, the attribution of attacks becomes........

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