Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, long known for its balance and pragmatism, is undergoing a shift. Empowered by its victory in Garabagh and subsequent restoration of sovereignty, Baku is moving into a more confident and assertive phase. Analysts at Fitch Solutions predict that Azerbaijan will seek to increase its influence across the South Caucasus by leveraging energy diplomacy, trade routes, and its strategic geographical position.

Major shifts are underway in the South Caucasus region, where countries are redefining the basic parameters that have remained relatively stable for the past three decades.

Restoration of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty. For three years following the war, several countries attempted to alter its results. However, since 2023, the process of adaptation has begun.

This shift is not only visible in forecasts, it resonates strongly in the words of President Ilham Aliyev. During his recent visit to the Khojaly district, he emphasised that the sense of justice and permanence brought by Azerbaijan’s victory:

“You [citizens] have returned to your native Garabagh land. I am sure that from now on your lives will be filled only with joy. The suffering and injustice are now in the past… Most importantly, you and your children will live forever in your native Garabagh land. This is a celebration of justice. We have restored justice, but above all, we have restored our rights.”

For decades, Azerbaijan pursued a multi-vector foreign policy—balancing relations with Russia, the EU, Türkiye, and others while carefully avoiding overdependence on any single partner. However, as Fitch notes, the post-war period has emboldened Baku to........

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