Foreign Policy > Iran

Iran’s Eschatological Rage Does Not Render Victory Impossible

Even for the most fanatic regimes, ground realities still matter.

Monty Donohew | March 29, 2026

Victor Davis Hanson’s appearance on Hannity highlighted his assessment that the signals are all pointing in one direction: Iran’s regime is on borrowed time. U.S. and Israeli operations have rendered Iran’s conventional forces largely inert, its proxy network fractured, its air defenses and missile capabilities severely degraded, and its last hope being that American domestic politics or fatigue force a premature halt to the conflict. If President Trump maintains resolve, the regime will fall.

That analysis, though, has drawn criticism; some argue that Iran’s eschatological rage—that is, the regime’s deep-rooted theological worldview—makes it uniquely immune to material pressure. In this view, “realities on the ground” (battlefield losses, sanctions, proxy attrition, or economic collapse) are inapplicable because Iran’s leaders operate in an apocalyptic framework that prioritizes confrontation over conventional survival.

This critique deserves serious engagement. Iran’s ideology does shape its behavior in ways that secular analysts often underestimate. But the claim that eschatological belief renders ground realities irrelevant overreaches. History and theology both show that even fervent regimes ultimately confront the limits of the material world.

The Islamic Republic is rooted in Twelver Shia Islam. Central to this faith is the belief in twelve infallible Imams, descended from the Prophet Muhammad. The twelfth, Muhammad al-Mahdi (born circa 869–870 CE), entered “occultation” (ghaybah or hidden state), first a lesser phase, then the greater, which continues today. He is hidden by divine will and will reappear as the Mahdi (“the Rightly Guided One”) and Qa’im (“the Riser”) at the end of time.

Traditional Twelver sources describe his return occurring amid global chaos, injustice, tyranny, bloodshed, and apocalyptic upheaval. Only after defeating the forces of evil will he establish universal justice before the Day of Judgment.

What makes Iran’s version activist rather than quietist is the 1979 Revolution under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Khomeini’s doctrine of velayat-e faqih (guardianship of the jurist) positioned the Supreme Leader as the Mahdi’s interim representative. The Islamic Republic was framed as the advance guard of the Mahdi, tasked........

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