In a stunning geopolitical reversal, on October 29, the United States abruptly lifted sanctions on Bosnian Serb leader and genocide denier Milorad Dodik – a known Kremlin ally who has long undermined Bosnia and Herzegovina’s sovereignty. The decision, which contradicts years of US policy, intriguingly coincides with the beginning of direct dealings between Russia and Bosnia’s Serb entity, Republika Srpska.

The Russians, who had long treated Belgrade as the only authority representing all Serbs across the region, have seriously undermined Serbia’s authority recently by acknowledging Dodik as the rightful representative of Bosnia’s Serb population.

The Trump administration’s unexpected move to lift sanctions on Dodik at a time when he is building a strategic relationship with Moscow signals a potential grand bargain between world powers, raising alarming questions about what Washington gained in exchange for effectively ceding half of Bosnia to Russia’s sphere of influence.

The US unexpectedly removed sanctions from Dodik and his network. This was a sudden, unexplained reversal of a longstanding policy. For years, the US targeted him for trying to destabilise Bosnia, denying genocide, and pushing for secession. Removing him from the sanctions list appears to give a blessing to the denial of the Bosnian genocide and creates a clear path for Bosnia’s breakup.

This move creates a glaring paradox in US foreign policy.

Dodik is one of the Kremlin’s most overt allies in Europe, openly celebrating his ties with Moscow and advocating for Russian interests. However, the US keeps strong sanctions on many other people and entities for far weaker links to Russia.

The perplexing decision to lift sanctions on him exposes a troubling inconsistency in Washington’s approach to Russia, one that undermines the credibility of its broader sanctions regime.

Citing successful lobbying by Dodik as the reason for this reversal is a weak and unconvincing justification. According to estimates, Dodik’s lobbying efforts in the US have grown to two or three times the $30m figure confirmed for 2017. The scale of his spending, however, is still a pittance compared with the vast sums deployed by other........

© Al Jazeera