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Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracy

Polls misfired during the election campaigns of 2012, 2016, and 2020. Their collective performance four years ago was their worst since 1980.

W. Joseph Campbell

In response to national pollsters’ failure in forecasting election outcomes in 1948 and 1952, The New York Times pursued in 1956 a weekslong,...

Polls of the 2020 presidential election were at their collective worst in 40 years. No misfire that year was more striking than CNN’s. Its final...