The Bay of Figs
Are the Americans coming to the aid of the Iranian people?
At Harvard, I knew a very bright young woman whose grandfather was personally close to several Democratic presidents. She once told me that when President Kennedy decided not to provide air cover to the Cuban emigres planning to overthrow Castro, it was he whom the president sent to give them the news. The rest is history, as they say, and the events of the failed attack are generally known as “The Bay of Pigs.”
Attacking Iran is not a trivial undertaking. The reasons are multifold: the Iranians do have missiles and can shoot back. Additionally, what kind of attack would make a real difference in the protests/revolution presently consuming Iran? If one knocked out Iranian oil production, that would further crush the mullah’s piggy bank; on the other hand, if the theocracy fails, you want oil coming online pronto so as to provide income for the new country to emerge from the fighting. Do you try to kill the leadership? Can you? Do you attack IRGC facilities? Do you send in drones to bomb the Basij guys on the motorbikes? I am sure that U.S. planners have the ultimate in data and capabilities at their disposal. But is there something that can be done that would significantly tilt the protest playing field in the direction of the millions who are literally risking their lives by marching in the streets? I would hope so, but I don’t know.
The 12-day war from the middle of last year was a learning experience for all involved. While Israel apparently batted down 82 percent of the missiles sent this way, some got through, and some of those led to mass casualties and widespread destruction. I believe that the official death toll was 85, which is 85 too many, but far fewer than the........
