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On the directions of Election Commission of India (ECI), a special intensive revision (SIR) exercise is being carried out in some states in line with Article 326 of the constitution. 

The ECI has the  motto that no eligible voter is to be left out, and no ineligible person is to be included in the electoral rolls. However, the ongoing SIR continues to attract criticism regarding the procedures adopted. Before every parliamentary or assembly election, voter lists are revised and updated. Yet, the current SIR resulted in the deletion of 47 lakh voters in Bihar. We do not know how many of them would have voted in parliament elections in 2024. 

In Uttar Pradesh, 2.89 crore voters included in the current voter lists are at risk of deletion.  Such a large scale of possible deletions raises the issue of whether the earlier electoral rolls used for parliamentary elections (2014, 2019, and 2024) and several assembly elections were distorted to that extent. 

In this article, we attempt to understand whether large-scale deletions from the pre-existing (i.e. before SIR 2025-26) voter lists are mainly due to duplication, deaths, migration etc. or if there is a probability of large-scale omission of eligible voters as a result of  the current SIR.  We do this by analysing Elector Recorded Percentage (ERP) – taken as the number of electors recorded in the electoral roll as percentage of the 18 population estimates.

For this analysis, the estimated state-wise population of eligible voters i.e. 18 , for the year 2021 and 2026 has been taken from Table T-17 of Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for 2011–2036 (published by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). The estimates for the requisite interim time-points have been interpolated by applying State-wise compounded annual population growth rates. It is germane that all the vital factors like mortality, fertility, migration etc. are duly........

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