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Israel’s Somaliland Gambit: Red Sea Power Shift

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On December 26th, 2025, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. This was not a symbolic gesture or a fit of diplomatic nostalgia. It was a calculated power move that converted years of quiet, practice-based security cooperation into overt strategic alignment — and in the process, outflanked Turkey, Egypt, and Iran’s Houthi proxies at one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.

The numbers expose exactly why the Bab el-Mandeb Strait matters. Before the Houthi campaign, 9.3 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum liquids flowed through it every single day — 12 percent of all seaborne-traded oil on the planet. More than 20,000 vessels pass annually, carrying roughly 10 percent of global maritime commerce.

Between November 2023 and October 2024, Iran-backed Houthis launched over 190 documented attacks on commercial shipping and naval vessels. Red Sea traffic plunged by 50 to 70 percent. Suez Canal transits collapsed from 2,068 ships in November 2023 to just 877 by October 2024. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope added 10 to 14 days and up to 1 million dollars per voyage in extra fuel, insurance, and operating costs. Global freight rates on Asia-Europe routes spiked 230 percent. This was not random piracy. It was systematic hybrid warfare that turned a commercial artery into a battlefield.

Israel’s Modern Doctrine of the Periphery — once built on diplomatic ties with sovereign........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)