Most people concentrate on the major players—Washington, Tehran, Israel, and the Gulf states—while the rest of the world observes the US-Iran conflict. However, even if they remain silent about it, another nation is in a very awkward situation. That country is Turkey.

Turkey has been careful and low-key since this crisis started. But underneath that calm is a real problem. A war between the US and Iran could directly threaten Turkey’s security—especially by stirring up the Kurdish issue all over again.

For a long time, Turkey’s primary security concern has been the Kurdish issue. Turkey closely monitors any significant event involving Kurdish people in the region. If a major military confrontation weakens Iran, it might recreate the same problem. Kurdish armed groups are growing stronger right along Turkey’s borders, something the country has been attempting to prevent for years.

Western Iran has large Kurdish areas. Iran may lose control of the remote areas if it is drawn into a major conflict or begins to disintegrate internally. Kurdish insurgent organizations along the Iran-Turkey border would have more space to operate as an outcome.

For Turkey, this is more than just a speculative concern. In mountains where Iran, Iraq, and Turkey intersect, PKK-affiliated groups have long been active. For many years, fighters, weapons, and intelligence have traveled through these border areas. Turkey has fought hard to keep such areas closed, but a weakened Iran might allow them to reopen.

Things become even more complex when you consider the possibility of Kurdish organizations from various countries joining. Kurdistan, Iraq, is already a partially autonomous province. Kurdish networks in Iran, Iraq, and maybe Syria may become more coordinated if Iranian Kurdistan also falls.

That wouldn’t automatically mean a unified Kurdish independence movement. But even limited cooperation between armed groups could change the security picture significantly, potentially leading to increased tensions and conflicts in the region. For Turkey, the real danger isn’t a formal declaration of independence—it’s a loose, cross-border Kurdish insurgency that’s hard to pin down.

Besides this, Turkey has a more significant strategic issue. As a member of NATO, it belongs to the Western Alliance. However, it is not interested in Iran’s destruction. The two nations have a long shared border that both sides have historically sought to keep stable, trade with one another, and have energy ties, despite contending with Iran for regional power.

Turkey is thus forced to choose between two difficult facts. A weakened Iran may reduce the influence of a regional rival, but a divided Iran could lead to the exact kind of instability Turkey fears most: the resurgence of Kurdish insurgent networks across several borders.

Turkey has been extremely cautious with its language since the start of this crisis because of this. In contrast to certain nations in the area, Ankara has refrained from taking sides or making provocative remarks. Its objective is damage control, to guarantee the battle does not redraw the security map along its borders, rather than team selection.

That’s why Turkey has been so careful with its words since this crisis began. Unlike some countries in the region, Ankara hasn’t taken strong sides or made provocative statements. Its goal isn’t to pick a team—it’s damage control: making sure the conflict doesn’t redraw the security map along its borders.

In significant geopolitical crises, the countries that have been struck the hardest are not always the ones fighting. Sometimes it’s the neighbors left to deal with the consequences of a war they never wanted to be a part of.

Ankara is perhaps the most exposed silent loser in this conflict, whatever the outcome.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)