As dark clouds of burning oil billow like thunderheads on the skyline of Moscow and black rain falls across the capital, why does Vladimir Putin fail to see that something fundamental is changing in the dynamic of his war? Why, when Donald Trump effectively agreed to hand over every inch of the Ukrainian territory Russia has captured and offered the Kremlin an easy off-ramp studded with juicy business deals, did Putin refuse? And why, for that matter, did the Russian President choose to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in the first place?

One answer is that Tsar Vladimir is mad, so blinded by his imperialist ambitions that he deliberately chooses to ignore the reality of a crashing economy, half a million dead fellow countrymen and a war that is obviously unwinnable. But a better – and actually more frightening – answer is not insanity but rather that Putin lives in a parallel reality, a sealed bubble of disinformation where all the data he receives confirms the wisdom of his choices.

Putin does not use a smartphone or computer and has said he believes the internet is a CIA invention

Putin does not use a smartphone or computer and has said he believes the internet is a CIA invention

That doubt-proof echo-chamber that Putin has constructed around himself is not just a story of the paranoid caprice of an elderly ruler. It is the most serious barrier to peace in Ukraine. It is also a structural problem with no obvious solution. What does it matter that Ukraine continues to massacre tens of thousands of Russian meat-assault soldiers, systematically blows up oil refineries and armaments plants deep inside Russia and cuts off Crimea with devastatingly effective medium-range drone attacks if the men Putin trusts most continue to fill his ears with stories that victory is at hand? Putin is the only man who can stop the war with a word. But the supposed facts on which he makes his decisions are curated by a cabal of military generals and elderly KGB veterans who have a deep vested interest in continuing the war.

Some of Russia’s self-styled patriotic military bloggers and social media influencers claim, even as they catastrophise about Ukraine’s deep strikes and moan about army corruption, that good Tsar Vladimir is surrounded by evil boyars. ‘Vladimir Vladimirovich, I appeal to you personally because it seems that you are being misinformed about the real situation in the country,’ said socialite Viktoria Bonya in an emotional video post earlier this year that triggered a deluge of hitherto unheard-of criticism from Russian elite figures. Bonya is right about Putin’s ignorance. But Putin is not the victim but rather the architect of his own isolation, a process aided by willing cronies keen to monopolise their influence on Russia’s only true decision-maker.

Putin’s inner circle is a black box and only a handful of people – mostly old KGB friends from his postings in Dresden........

© The Spectator