The abrupt announcement of a two-week ceasefire in the war between the US, Israel and Iran resolves none of the issues which caused the conflict. Beyond an agreement to cease attacks, the arrangements that will hold during the two-week period appear themselves unclear. Each side in the last hours seemed to commit to different versions of the ceasefire in key areas.

Iran remains an aggressive and dangerous power, with the ambition of expelling the US from the region, dominating the Gulf states and destroying Israel

Iran remains an aggressive and dangerous power, with the ambition of expelling the US from the region, dominating the Gulf states and destroying Israel

From Israel’s point of view, the bottom line is clear. The Iranian regime has been significantly weakened in its capacities in a number of key areas. At the same time, the regime has not been destroyed or even severely damaged in its continued ability to rule Iran. Its intentions remain unchanged, despite the changing of the guard at the summit after the removal of a number of key leaders. This means that whether or not fighting resumes after the current ceasefire, the enemy has been weakened, and the long war is set to continue.

Regarding the precise details of the ceasefire, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the deal, brokered by Islamabad, applied ‘everywhere, including Lebanon.’ Such an interpretation would not be to Israel’s liking. A key objective from Jerusalem’s point of view throughout has been to separate the Lebanese front from any larger US-led arrangement with Iran.

Israel believes that the Lebanese Hezbollah made a severe error in choosing to enter the war on March 4, after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It wants to use the opportunity to establish a buffer zone north of the........

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