Almost all media commentators seem convinced that Donald Trump’s foreign policy in his second term is a disaster. He is bogged down in Iran, snookered in Ukraine, his tariff agenda has failed and he has alienated his NATO allies. But this consensus has been too hastily formed. Looking at the bigger global picture, Trump’s foreign policy has been a spectacular success.

Take the western hemisphere. We have the so-called “Donroe Doctrine,” the updated version of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. In 1822, president James Monroe, having welcomed South America’s overthrow of Spanish and Portuguese imperial rule, stated that Latin American nations should “henceforth not to be considered as subject for future colonization by any European power… we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.”

Today, “European power” in this context should be replaced by “Chinese power.” And it is against the metric of Chinese power that Trump’s foreign policy needs to be judged.

The latest Peruvian presidential election results are currently too close to call and the final tally may not be released until July. If the left-wing Roberto Sánchez is able to secure a win, Chinese mining conglomerates may be able to tie up supply of Peruvian copper and iron ore, as well as control of a planned deep-sea megaport. Happily for Trump, Sánchez’s Together for Peru party remains a long way short of a majority in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies.

Contrary to the opinion of the world’s media, the Xi-Putin meet was a gathering of geopolitical losers

Contrary to the opinion of the world’s media, the Xi-Putin meet was a gathering of geopolitical losers

Nevertheless, this potential setback aside, Trump’s presidency, both by good fortune and design, has seen a realignment of South American politics with the political right. President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador led the way with an election victory in 2019 based on a fearsomely tough law-and-order strategy. Trump has successfully leveraged his own crackdown on crime gangs by using El Salvador’s infamous prisons to house alleged South American gangsters operating in the US. Despite recent protests about rising inflation, Bukele’s popularity rating stands at 94 percent.

Libertarian President Javier Milei in Argentina is another right-winger who led the way with his elections two years ago, a victory for the right that was reinforced by sweeping success in midterm elections last October. It was a victory against the odds no doubt helped by a $20 billion lending pledge from the US President.

This victory for Trump was topped by an even more aggressive intervention in South America with the decapitation of Xi Jinping’s South American ally, Venezuela. The capture of President Nicolás Maduro and a deal done with his vice president cut off China’s access to its oil. This was not only a blow to China but also to Xi personally. Xi’s family, through his older sister Qi Qiaoqiao’s conglomerate, were reportedly selling oil in China bought at a discount from Venezuela. The change in Venezuela represents a remarkable victory for Trump’s muscular foreign policy.

Furthermore, the toppling of Maduro’s regime has brought the Communist party of Cuba to its knees. The Trump administration is already anticipating its surrender. Because of oil and food shortages, President Miguel Díaz-Canel may well have to reach an accommodation........

© The Spectator