After years of negotiations, two wars, a succession of ruthlessly quashed uprisings in Iran and countless billions of dollars’ worth of ordnance smashing into rubble across the region, we have the bones of an agreement. Not a deal, it should be said. Instead an understanding that manages to speak volumes and yet say very little in the way of concrete details. US Vice President J. D. Vance’s trip to Switzerland may have been postponed – after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire over Lebanon last night – but the Memorandum of Understanding between America and Israel has been signed, and both sides seem confident that the peace process has not yet been derailed.

Who won, you might ask? Surely, Iran. The US, after all, has not achieved one of its stated aims of the conflict; the regime still stands, missile stockpiles still exist, the proxies still fight and a Khamenei rules over the people of Iran.

Tehran has gained some mighty financial concessions from the US. Clause 9 of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) clearly states that Iran’s nuclear programme will ‘maintain’ the status quo, i.e., still be able to enrich uranium and maintain centrifuges. Gone is the Trumpian red line of zero enrichment.

You could say that the Islamic Republic has undergone a coup, of sorts

You could say that the Islamic Republic has undergone a coup, of sorts

Likewise, Iran will, subject to compliance, receive a $300 billion reconstruction fund (double what the Marshall Plan would be worth in today’s money), paid for from regional pockets. Those very same pockets that have taken such a hammering both literally and economically since Iran decided to close the Strait of Hormuz, a concession which must be a bitter pill to swallow across the Gulf, and in Tel Aviv.

Let’s not forget, one of the main reasons for Trump pulling out of the JCPOA in 2018 was due to significant pressure from Gulf powers, alarmed at how Iran........

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