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Will the wars in Ukraine and Iran merge?

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thursday

This is a fraught moment, perhaps the most dangerous since the end of the Cold War. Two major wars are being fought, one threatening European security, the other the world’s energy supply. In East Asia, China continues to threaten Taiwan, and North Korea is reportedly upgrading its military technology with Russian help.

Put simply, the bad guys are on the march, fighting for their regimes’ survival, their malign domestic projects, and as much regional domination as they can achieve.

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Although the wars in Ukraine and Iran have remained largely separate, there have been several intersections recently and a gnawing fear they could merge into a global conflict. That grim possibility is still a longshot, but there is real danger because the coalitions fighting the two wars overlap.

That connection was underscored Tuesday in Washington when President Trump met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Israel’s Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. It was underscored recently when Ukrainian drone experts traveled to the Persian Gulf to share their hard-won knowledge. And it was underscored again last week when Ukraine took out a Russian-Iranian shipment in the Caspian Sea. Iran would dearly love to hit back but is limited because any attack on Ukraine would likely need to cross over Türkiye, which would respond forcefully and has the military capability to do so.

The allies supporting Tehran and Moscow in their respective war have far fewer resources than their Western counterparts and are less technologically advanced, but they are far more unified. In the Ukraine War, Russia is backed by China, Iran, and North Korea. In the Iran war, the same countries line up the same way. The Islamic Regime is backed by Russia, China, and North Korea.

The West, by contrast, has formed different counter-coalitions in the two conflicts. The only common denominator is the United States. In Iran, America is fighting without help from its longtime partners in Europe and Asia, even though they, not the US, rely on oil and petrochemicals transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The........

© The Spectator