In May, Flávio Bolsonaro sat down with Donald Trump at the White House. He made a pledge: if he were elected president, Brazil would join the Shield of the Americas, Trump’s hemispheric alliance against the cartels. That pledge is now three weeks from coming due. On Sunday Flávio finished ahead in the first round of Brazil’s elections, 47 percent to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45, short of an outright win but in pole position for the runoff on October 25.

Much of this is down to the dismantling of USAID. American tax dollars underpinned Brazil’s left-wing establishment, with funding for progressive media, universities, Supreme Court staffers and pro-LGBT activists. Now that money is gone, and Bolsonaro Jr., who had trailed in the polls for much of the campaign, is on the brink of winning. The candidate who leads the first round has won every Brazilian presidential election since the end of military rule in 1985.

American tax dollars underpinned Brazil’s left-wing establishment. Now that money is gone

American tax dollars underpinned Brazil’s left-wing establishment. Now that money is gone

For Washington, a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency would be the biggest prize yet in its campaign to remake the hemisphere, a campaign in which the past seven South American elections have seen a right-wing, Trump-aligned candidate win. The Shield of the Americas, launched at Trump’s Doral summit in March, is the political umbrella. Beneath it is a military agreement, the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, or A3C, formed the same month. The Shield now counts around 15 members, mostly right-leaning governments such as Argentina, El Salvador and, since August, Colombia. The A3C has 19, including the Bahamas, Jamaica, Belize and Guatemala, which sit in the military coalition but not the Shield.

Adding Latin America’s largest country would turn a club of allies into something closer to a hemispheric bloc. Lula has opposed this American-led, anti-cartel agreement. In September he told the UN that Brazil needed cooperation against organized crime, not foreign intervention. That is a curious line from a government that has opposed designating the PCC cartel and the Comando Vermelho as terrorist organizations.

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Flávio Bolsonaro could join the Shield by presidential decision alone. Signing up to the A3C, the military coalition with operational commitments, would be just as........

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