Apart from windfall revenues from higher oil and gas prices and the political leverage that comes from supplying the Global South with fertilisers, how much sanctions relief can Russia also expect amid the war in the Middle East?

Some relief is already here. On 12 March, the United States amended its sanctions on Russian oil tankers already at sea. Under an updated general licence, Washington continued to allow the sale of Russian crude and petroleum products loaded onto vessels as of that date. It also globally extended a month-long Treasury department waiver, issued a week earlier, that had allowed India to buy Russian crude and petroleum products loaded between 12 March and 11 April. This is despite warning Delhi earlier this year that, should India fail to wean itself off Russian oil by April, a US trade deal would be off the cards.

Some European leaders were unimpressed. ‘Lifting the sanctions will… lead to a strengthening of Russia’s position,’ said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky after talks with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on 13 March. ‘This easing alone by the United States could provide Russia with about $10 billion (£7.5 billion) for the war,’ he added. Scott Bessent, the US........

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