Donald Trump’s telephone call with Vladimir Putin last Friday was supposed to be about a suspected outbreak of plague in Russia, but it ended, as their conversations tend to, with a deal. Russia, the President announced, would supply America with more than 300,000 tons of diesel immediately, 500,000 tons in November, a million tons “immediately thereafter” and another three million “within a short period of time.” The Treasury issued a license exempting Russian diesel from American sanctions until April.

In the same breath, Trump proclaimed another energy ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, the second in a month, and took another swipe at Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he would plainly like to see replaced at the ballot box. Russia marked the truce, a few hours later, by striking a power station in the Kharkiv region.

The diesel arithmetic is unflattering to everyone involved. The first tranche of 300,000 tons amounts to about 2.2 million barrels – or roughly half a day of American distillate consumption, which runs at around four million barrels a day. Even if all 4.8 million tons materialize – and Ukraine, which has been targeting Russian refineries for months, will have something to say about that – they would cover barely nine days of demand spread over six months. 

The barrels Trump is getting are barrels Russia would have sold anyway

The barrels Trump is getting are barrels Russia would have sold anyway

True, diesel demand is notoriously inelastic, since lorries and combine harvesters cannot simply stay at home when the price displeases their owners, so even modest changes in supply can move the market. Nevertheless, volumes of this size will pass through it largely unnoticed.

Nor does America have any need for Russian diesel, being........

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