Slouching Toward Kamala Harris

There are three polling numbers you can use to understand the condition of the Democratic Party in 2026. The first is Donald Trump’s approval rating, which has dropped into the high 30s, a terrain usually associated with dramatic public rebukes and mandates for the opposition.

The second is the generic congressional ballot, which is promising Democrats decent midterm election results but is stubbornly refusing to promise a sweeping mandate or a clear shot at flipping all the crucial Senate states.

The third is polling for the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries, in which the leading Democratic candidate is consistently Kamala Harris, the face of the party’s........

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