The Folly of Attacking Iran

We Americans have begun another Middle Eastern war based on dubious intelligence claims, and as in 2003, I fear we haven’t thought through the substantial risks and uncertain gains.

President Trump says that the aim of this “massive and ongoing” war is no less than regime change: He has vowed to devastate Iran’s military force, destroy its nuclear program (again) and topple the leadership. Lofty goals. But fundamental questions remain: How likely is it that he can achieve all of this, and at what cost and risk?

War is uncertain. Sometimes it goes as smoothly as the Persian Gulf war of 1991, and sometimes you find yourself mired in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq. I’ve reported from Iran over the years, and I’ve seen the popular resentment against the government, so maybe the attacks will lead Iran’s government to collapse the way its allies in Syria did in 2024.

But air wars alone have a poor record of overthrowing leaders: The United States under Presidents Joe Biden and Trump spent more than $7 billion bombing Yemen and couldn’t dislodge even the weak, unpopular and poorly armed Houthis.

In general, American military interventions have a better record of success when they have a precise, limited objective — like the operation in Venezuela to seize President Nicolás Maduro. This war with Iran appears the opposite, aiming for nothing less than the overthrow of a government of more than 90 million people.

Trump may have too sunny a view of what war with Iran would entail because Iran barely responded to the assassination of Qassim Suleimani in 2020 or to the bombing of nuclear sites last year. My guess is that Iran feels it now must re-establish deterrence and will continue to respond aggressively — not just attacking United States military bases but also perhaps striking ships in the Strait of Hormuz (through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes) or organizing future terror attacks against American targets worldwide.

Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.

Nicholas Kristof became a columnist for The Times Opinion desk in 2001 and has won two Pulitzer Prizes. His new memoir is “Chasing Hope: A Reporter's Life.” @NickKristof

© The New York Times