Who Will Win the Midterms? 6 Pollsters and Pundits Have Thoughts.

By New York Times Opinion Contributors

With the midterm elections about four months off, ​Times Opinion asked six polling and politics experts to look into their crystal balls and guess who would win control of the House and the Senate if the elections were held today. These are not scientific computations but educated guesses from people who think a lot about politics.

Which party will control the House and the Senate?

To win a majority, 218 is the magic number in the House. Democrats would need to pick up at least four seats for control of the Senate.

As of today, almost all of our contributors believe the Democrats will gain control of the House but fall just short of a majority in the Senate. We also asked them to pick data points, races and candidates that capture the state of play in midterm contests across the country.

If the elections were held today …

Perry Bacon Mr. Bacon is a staff writer at The New Republic.

Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings would suggest a massive House defeat for the president’s party, similar to 2006, 2010 and 2018. But polarization and the sorting of the electorate (meaning fewer swing districts than in previous cycles) as well as the seats Republicans gained through redistricting will minimize G.O.P. House losses. For the Senate, North Carolina seems like a clear flip for Democrats. Maine is a real tossup — Susan Collins has a strong chance even against a Democrat without Graham Platner’s baggage. If you give Democrats both those seats, I still don’t see them winning more than one in the red states of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — and the Democrats need four to take the majority.

Carlos Odio Mr. Odio is a founder of Equis Research.

All signs point to a Democratic House majority. But there is a drag on Democrats keeping them from a larger tsunami. My informed suspicion is that groups that swung the most toward Trump in 2024 haven’t entirely turned against his party — yet. For a Senate majority, Democrats need to win in at least two states where Trump won by double digits. Even in the blue wave of 2018, only two incumbents (Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia) did that. Today, I can see Democrats pulling off one miracle — but it’s too early to anticipate more. I still think Maine will move on from Susan Collins.

Patrick Ruffini Mr. Ruffini is a pollster at Echelon Insights.

An election being fought on the G.O.P.’s home turf and in districts engineered not to be competitive means it will be hard for Democrats to translate a generic ballot advantage into large seat gains. Without mid-decade redistricting, the G.O.P. would be staring down a 25- to 30-seat loss. Still, the redrawn maps don’t insulate them from losing their majority. For the Senate, elections have become tightly coupled with state partisanship. A Democratic majority would require challengers to win in multiple red states, and the last time a nonincumbent won in a state the other party carried by 10 points or more was Doug Jones in Alabama in 2017. The last time a nonincumbent won in a regularly scheduled election was in 2012.

Nate Silver Mr. Silver writes the newsletter Silver Bulletin.

With the Democratic lead on the generic ballot (currently about D 6), you’d expect them to overcome the Republican advantage from redistricting. That could grow, because most polls right now are among registered voters, and Democrats are likely to have an enthusiasm advantage that will show up once there’s a switch to likely-voter polls. In the Senate, to win those four seats, Maine is a problem. There’s not much polling on non-Platner alternatives versus Collins, and any bridge burning by him on the way out could make it hard to unify around the new nominee. Coupled with the recent Times/Siena Senate polling, that makes for more combinations where Democrats come up short.

Charlotte Swasey Ms. Swasey writes the newsletter Medium Data.

Democrats are very, very likely to win a House majority.........

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