Europe Is in Great Danger. It Has Itself to Blame.

Mr. Jäger is a contributing Opinion writer and a lecturer in politics at Oxford University. He wrote from Brussels.

“It is worse than a crime; it is a blunder.” Thus was the response of a prominent French politician to the news that Napoleon had executed an enemy duke in 1804.

An adage of 19th-century power politics, it has regained painful relevance today. Neither the United States nor Israel can proffer a coherent plan for their war on Iran. Something like the Syrian scenario is the best planners can come up with: disintegration of the polity from the skies, without the presence of foreign troops, domestic propaganda campaigns or long-term security planning. Old-style regime change is out. Regime wrecking, at great global cost, is all that is on offer.

The apothegm easily applies to Europe’s leaders, too. Despite being blindsided by the Israeli-American operation in Iran, they have largely declared support for it — if somewhat cagily — and lent military assistance in the form of bases, warships and planes. More structurally, Europeans have foundered in letting themselves be so dependent on the whims of an America commanded by a rogue president. Almost by default, they have colluded in the conditions of their own endangerment.

The consequences are potentially calamitous. Energy prices are already rising precipitously, an effect of a snarled-up Strait of Hormuz, as leaders face pressure to contribute more to President Trump’s blitzkrieg. Today the war risks spreading to Europe; soon it could bring a refugee crisis as people flee a ravaged Middle East. Yet to counteract such dangers, and the dependencies underpinning them, most European leaders are doing precious little.

Instead, they have opted for passive bystandership or active coalescence. After initially refusing, Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain allowed the United States to use British bases and Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany backed the effort “to get rid of this terrible terrorist regime.” President Emmanuel Macron of France has been more circumspect in words but clearer in action, deploying several warships to the region. Not to be outdone, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy offered the country’s bases to America and dispatched air defense weapons to the Persian Gulf.

What explains such complaisance? Energy is one potential answer. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 effectively cut off gas supplies to the continent, Europe was forced to find alternative sources of energy. It partly turned to liquefied natural gas, much of it imported from America. (A smaller amount came from Qatar, now stanched by the war.) One dependence on a politically unreliable provider has been replaced with another. In their subordinate state, European politicians may prefer to toe the White House line rather than cross it.

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