Don’t Put Your Hopes on a New Middle East

By Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller

Mr. Kurtzer is a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel; Mr. Miller is a former State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator.

However long it takes, Operation Epic Fury will undoubtedly end with something the United States and Israel will call a win. Iran’s military will suffer major setbacks. Its political leadership will be eroded. Its stores of ballistic missiles and drones will be depleted. Its capacity to rebuild a nuclear enrichment program with the prospect of early weaponization will be set back. Its ability to act aggressively in the region via proxies will be severely diminished. These achievements — given the threats to regional stability, Israel and the United States that Iran has posed since 1979 — will be important.

What follows the war is more uncertain. Prime........

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