For over two decades, the United States has regarded India as a “natural partner” — a rising power whose geography, military capabilities and democratic credentials made it indispensable to America’s strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Five successive U.S. administrations, Republican and Democratic alike, invested heavily in strengthening that partnership, treating India not just as a market, but as a long-term strategic bet.

But the goodwill that the U.S. built up with India over that period has been rapidly eroded since Donald Trump’s return to the presidency last year. Trump’s second presidency has brought repeated public insults and a bruising trade war, with the U.S. using tariffs as tools of geopolitical coercion. The interim trade deal announced on Feb. 2 may have halted the economic confrontation, but trust — the essential currency of any strategic partnership — is unlikely to be restored any time soon.

By reducing the effective U.S. tariff burden on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, the newly announced deal will deliver short-term relief for India. But it comes with plenty of strings attached, including the requirement that India move toward near-zero tariffs on U.S. industrial products and a wide range of agricultural goods. India’s decision to open its sensitive agricultural sector — the country’s largest employer — to a flood of imports from the U.S. is already sparking a domestic backlash.

© The Japan Times