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How business is bracing for a US-China trade war

2 14
09.01.2025

President-elect Trump talked tough on tariffs on his way to securing a resounding win for Republicans in November, and now businesses are preparing for a trade war that could eclipse the one that Trump kicked off in 2018 during his first term.

While the tariff talk may have served as an early-stage negotiating tactic in addition to a policy proposal, it’s already having political and economic consequences.

U.S. ports are seeing a surge in cargo volumes ahead of the expected import taxes, which Trump has said could encompass a 10 percent to 20 percent general tariff and 60 percent tariffs on goods from China, one of the U.S.’s main trading partners.

The Port of Los Angeles, which is the U.S.’s main commercial gateway to China, handled almost a million 20-foot containers in October, an increase of 25 percent on the year that port officials attributed in part to the prospect of new tariffs. Volumes were up 16 percent in November and were tracking a 19 percent increase in December.

Following a threat by Trump to impose a 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau headed to Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., for a meeting with Trump, followed last month by the Canadian Finance Minister and Foreign Minister.

In Congress, lawmakers are debating whether to demote China as a most favored U.S. trading partner by doing away with permanent normal trade relations (PNTR), a classification awarded to the country when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) more than 20 years ago.

That move would be mostly symbolic since the U.S. has maintained tariffs on China for years and recently instituted new ones on electric vehicles and components. But it would nonetheless send a clear signal that the economic relationship between the U.S. and China is being downgraded.

“This would basically be smacking the WTO in the face,” Bill Reinsch, international business chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Hill.

A spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team told The Hill the incoming administration “will work quickly” on tariffs and the economy, and intends to “re-shore” American jobs.

Here’s a look at how a reset in economic relations between the U.S. and China will affect the two countries and broader dynamics within the global economy.

Taking away PNTR status

Companion bills in the House and Senate that........

© The Hill


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