Several GOP Senate incumbents are already staring down the threat of primary challenges next year as friction builds between the MAGA and establishment wings.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who plans to run for reelection in 2026, is facing a possible primary challenger in Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of President-elect Trump. Meanwhile, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment, has already drawn a MAGA challenger. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who was censured by his state party in 2023, could also face a tough fight from the right.

These vulnerable GOP senators will have to walk a tightrope in supporting some of Trump’s most controversial Cabinet picks and pieces of legislation while also seeking to appeal to the broader electorates in their home states.

“The senators who are up this time around have watched the MAGA movement grow and understand that the tough votes they take today could be primary challenges tomorrow,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a former top spokesperson in the Senate.

“They’ve seen the political combat Trump made, and his historic sweep of a Republican Congress and White House. And senators who are on the fence of particular issues will definitely be weighing that strongly: what their backyard looks like, how strong the MAGA base is at home,” Bonjean said. “It’s probably even stronger now.”

Republicans won control of the White House and both chambers of Congress last year as much of the country shifted rightward. But congressional control will be on the table again in 2026, as a third of the upper chamber’s seats go up for reelection. Republicans will be on defense in 20 states, compared to 13 states for Democrats.

On the heels of Trump’s win, the GOP Senate incumbents........

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