Sooner or later, possibly as early as next week, France’s far-right National Rally (RN) is going to take power. That’s the main lesson of Sunday’s first round of snap parliamentary elections, in which Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration nationalists amplified their European election score on a far higher turnout.

President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble of dissolving parliament and seeking a “clarification” from voters after an ultra-short three-week campaign backfired spectacularly on his own supporters. His centrist coalition finished a distant third behind the RN and the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) in the popular vote and looks set to keep fewer than 100 of its 249 seats in the 577-member national assembly. After Sunday’s first ballot, Macron called for a “broad rally in support of republican and democratic candidates” and against the extreme right. But few people are listening.

The Macron era is over, even if the president stays in the Élysée palace until his term ends in 2027. The electorate overwhelmingly rejected him for the second time in a month. His hold on both domestic and European policy will be seriously diminished, whatever the outcome of next week’s run-offs.

France, a founder member and driving force in the European Union, a G7 economy, nuclear power and permanent member of the UN security council, is set to become a more awkward, inwardly focused partner in EU and Nato negotiations, a less enthusiastic supporter of Ukraine and a brake on further European integration.

Whether the RN wins an absolute majority in next Sunday’s second round and Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 28-year-old protege, becomes prime minister, or........

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