For centuries, the Caucasus was one of the great frontiers of imperial rivalry, separating and connecting the competing spheres of the Ottoman, Russian and Persian empires. In the twentieth century, the region came under Soviet rule; after the Soviet Union's collapse, the emergence of independent republics dislodged Russia's influence across much of the post-Soviet space.

For generations, the central geopolitical question in the Caucasus was: who rules the Caucasus? Today, a more consequential question is emerging: who connects through the Caucasus? In an increasingly multipolar world, the region is acquiring three competing identities - a frontier, a corridor and a crossroads. Today, not only great powers but also middle and smaller states have substantial geopolitical and geoeconomic stakes in the Caucasus. The region bears striking structural similarities to the Middle East, a region whose politics have long been complicated by overlapping spheres of influence, unresolved territorial disputes, competing corridors, external interventions, historical and identity-based grievances and shifting alliances. Therefore, the question the region faces today is whether the Caucasus can transform these competing interests into commercial success or, like the Middle East, become another arena where geopolitical competition and conflict overwhelm the promise of connectivity.

Five emerging trends are likely to determine its future. They are: the rise of a multipolar world; the contest for connectivity; the geopolitics of energy; Russia's adaptation to a changing regional order; and the Middle Eastern spillover.

In a multipolar world, the Caucasus is likely to........

© The Express Tribune