Asia Defense | Security | Central Asia

No Enemies, Stronger Army: Kazakhstan’s Strategic Bet

Kazakhstan’s military modernization efforts reflect an adaptive response to growing great power competition.

When Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued a strict, two-year deadline for the comprehensive modernization of his country’s armed forces, it raised eyebrows across Eurasia. To some Russian defense analysts, an accelerated military overhaul seems unnecessary for a country with no active border disputes or immediate, external kinetic threats. Conversely, Western observers interpreted these reforms as an attempt to safeguard the state against internal instability and potential Russian revisionism following the war in Ukraine. Others frame it as a step toward consolidating Kazakhstan’s status as a middle power, portraying the modernization effort as a balancing strategy vis-à-vis Russia and China.

Although such explanations may function as partial explanations, two key factors are particularly important for understanding Kazakhstan’s broader strategic rationale: the changing character of modern warfare and the transition of the international system toward multipolarity, both of which are generating increasing strategic unpredictability. In this regard, a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific could generate unprecedented security challenges for Kazakhstan, making such military reforms not only rational but increasingly necessary.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought dramatic technological changes to the conduct of modern warfare. A wide range of emerging technologies, including unmanned systems, precision-guided munitions, and AI-enabled surveillance, can now compensate for demographic and geographic constraints. Despite Russia’s superior air force and conventional military capabilities, Ukraine has managed to conduct long-range drone strikes that have inflicted significant damage on Russian airbases deep inside Russian territory. According to some estimates, these attacks contributed to roughly a 25 percent reduction in the pre-invasion operational strength of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). In 2025 alone, an estimated four out of every five Russian casualties were reportedly caused by Ukrainian drone operations, underscoring the growing centrality of unmanned systems in modern warfare.

Thus, Kazakhstan appears to be adopting a layered approach, integrating unmanned systems into a broader framework of airspace control, mobility, and strategic autonomy. Given its vast territory, air mobility and rapid response remain equally critical, enabling swift deployment in both internal and external contingencies. More fundamentally, Kazakhstan’s modernization points to a shift from platform-centric to system-centric warfare. The emphasis on drones, artificial intelligence, and domestic satellite capabilities suggests a move toward an integrated ISR architecture, where data becomes the central strategic asset. Kazakhstan’s decision to establish a specialized military AI unit shows its adaptation to the evolving character of warfare, in which artificial intelligence is increasingly used to enhance operational efficiency, battlefield awareness, and national security capabilities.

Military modernization efforts and technological upgrading have become an integral part of Kazakhstan’s multivector foreign policy. On May 15, 2026, the Informal Summit of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) was convened in Turkistan, Kazakhstan, under the theme “Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development.” Notably, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the Alem.AI Artificial Intelligence Center in Astana, signaling enhanced cooperation that may ultimately support Kazakhstan’s drive for military digitalization. 

While Tokayev downplayed suggestions about the creation of a Turkic military alliance, the recent defense industry deal with Turkiye on the establishment of a facility for the production of ANKA unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Kazakhstan signals Astana’s deepening defense partnership with Ankara, as well as its strong push to diversify military imports. For 2026, Kazakhstan is ranked 58th in the Global Firepower Index, with over $6 billion allocated to security and defense in 2026, an increase of over $700 million from 2025. Moreover, a recent study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute listed Kazakhstan as the 26th-largest arms importer, accounting for 0.9 percent of global arms imports, with Russia accounting for 88 percent of Kazakhstan’s arms imports.   

China has become an integral supplier of dual-use goods, military equipment, and high-tech products in the region, as reflected by recent record levels of trade following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. According to China’s General Administration of Customs, exports to Kazakhstan of unmanned aircraft weighing 25 kg to 150 kg increased from $100,000 in 2023 to $1.31 million in 2024, and unmanned aircraft from 250 g to 7 kg increased from $3.7 million in 2022 to $9.7 million in 2024. In 2025, the Chinese company Yesil Technology Company, with support from JSC NC Kazakh Invest, pledged to invest $12 million to establish a drone production facility in Kazakhstan, highlighting the influence of China’s private sector in Kazakhstan’s indigenous technological development. Furthermore, other intermediary goods, including radio navigational aid apparatuses, increased from $12.93 million in 2022 to $48.18 million in 2025; semiconductor-based transducers increased from $370,000 in 2023 to $20.5 million in 2025; and electronic integrated circuits (amplifiers) increased from $188,000 in 2023 to $11.6 million in 2025. 

Notably, these intermediary components have been identified by the United States and other Western actors as vital for supporting the Russian war machine as part of the Common High Priority List (CHPL). While........

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