ASEAN Beat | Economy | Southeast Asia

Myanmar’s Military on the Back Foot Over Fuel Shortages

But the junta is setting up a new propaganda unit in order to send more positive messages.

A road-side petrol stand in a village close to Inle Lake, Myanmar.

Myanmar’s military is feeling the pinch just 12 days after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran. Access to oil is key to the junta’s survival, and its supply shortages are already being felt at the pump and perhaps on the battlefield.

But that’s not the message that Senior Gen. Ming Aung Hlaing and his senior brass want relayed, and they have established a new propaganda body designed to ensure the rest of us stay on message. A week ago, that message was 492 million liters in reserve, enough for 40 days.

The junta would also like its yet-to-be-named propaganda unit to extol its legitimacy in the wake of the recent elections, in which barely half the population could vote due to a long-running civil war it started.

Even with forced voting and allegations of rigging, barely 11 percent of the population voted for its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won anyway and is expected to do the military’s bidding while disguised as a civilian government.

And it will be tested at the bowser, where reality has hit the ordinary people of Myanmar on many fronts as the international market price of crude leapt from just under $65 a barrel to almost $90 in the first 11 days of the war in Iran.

Despite military reassurances – and depending on where – pump prices have at least doubled to around $2 per liter amid panic buying. Rationing has been introduced on an odd and even number plate system.

Long queues continue to form in Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, where motorcyclists were limited to buying petrol worth $1.25 while motorists could spend no more than $2.50.

Such restrictions prompted similar queues at the Myawaddy-Mae Sot border crossing, with motorists spending much of their day lining up to fill up at a cheaper rate without restrictions in Thailand.

Myanmar imports about 90 percent of its oil and petroleum products via India and ASEAN countries, predominantly Singapore and Malaysia, but also Indonesia and Thailand.

Chinese imports account for less than two percent, but given the People’s Republic also relies heavily on oil imports from the Gulf, it is unlikely to emerge as an alternative fuel source despite Naypyidaw’s cozy ties with Beijing.

Like everywhere else, India and ASEAN countries are anticipating long delays in obtaining oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

But there is, perhaps, a silver lining, with the opposition in exile National Unity Government (NUG) hoping that chaos in the Middle East will stall shipments of aviation gasoline.

Speculation is rife that Iran has supplied the AvGas used to fuel the junta’s air force fleet that has relentlessly bombed civilian targets for the past five years.

A recent report by Amnesty International says the evidence points towards Iran, backed by a fleet of “ghost ships” and a supply chain “gone rogue,” that has kept the junta’s air force in the air.

“Five years after the coup, our analysis shows that the Myanmar junta continues to evade sanctions and find new ways to import the jet fuel it uses to bomb its own civilians,” the Amnesty report said, while adding “several indicators point to an Iran connection.”

The bombing campaigns have continued. A quick count from local dispatches suggests that some 39 civilians have been killed and a further 45 wounded by air attacks since late February. And lurking in the background, as always, is Russia.

Three Russian ships docked in Yangon on March 5 for a six-day visit, which sources close to the NUG say are dropping off weapons and potentially fuel, given Moscow’s close ties with Naypyidaw, which have been on a roll following a plan to furnish the junta with a small nuclear reactor.

The military line, as propagated by the military-controlled press, was that this is a “friendship visit,” underscoring the deepening military partnership between Moscow and Naypyidaw.

But as one Western security source, with close ties inside Myanmar, put it: “It’s no secret that Russia is desperately trying to evade sanctions and find markets for its oil. Myanmar is a logical choice and Moscow would be more than happy to fill any void left by Iran or anyone else.”

It’s all rich fodder for the USDP and the yet-to-be-named propaganda unit to work with.

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Myanmar’s military is feeling the pinch just 12 days after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran. Access to oil is key to the junta’s survival, and its supply shortages are already being felt at the pump and perhaps on the battlefield.

But that’s not the message that Senior Gen. Ming Aung Hlaing and his senior brass want relayed, and they have established a new propaganda body designed to ensure the rest of us stay on message. A week ago, that message was 492 million liters in reserve, enough for 40 days.

The junta would also like its yet-to-be-named propaganda unit to extol its legitimacy in the wake of the recent elections, in which barely half the population could vote due to a long-running civil war it started.

Even with forced voting and allegations of rigging, barely 11 percent of the population voted for its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which won anyway and is expected to do the military’s bidding while disguised as a civilian government.

And it will be tested at the bowser, where reality has hit the ordinary people of Myanmar on many fronts as the international market price of crude leapt from just under $65 a barrel to almost $90 in the first 11 days of the war in Iran.

Despite military reassurances – and depending on where – pump prices have at least doubled to around $2 per liter amid panic buying. Rationing has been introduced on an odd and even number plate system.

Long queues continue to form in Naypyidaw, Yangon, and Mandalay, where motorcyclists were limited to buying petrol worth $1.25 while motorists could spend no more than $2.50.

Such restrictions prompted similar queues at the Myawaddy-Mae Sot border crossing, with motorists spending much of their day lining up to fill up at a cheaper rate without restrictions in Thailand.

Myanmar imports about 90 percent of its oil and petroleum products via India and ASEAN countries, predominantly Singapore and Malaysia, but also Indonesia and Thailand.

Chinese imports account for less than two percent, but given the People’s Republic also relies heavily on oil imports from the Gulf, it is unlikely to emerge as an alternative fuel source despite Naypyidaw’s cozy ties with Beijing.

Like everywhere else, India and ASEAN countries are anticipating long delays in obtaining oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

But there is, perhaps, a silver lining, with the opposition in exile National Unity Government (NUG) hoping that chaos in the Middle East will stall shipments of aviation gasoline.

Speculation is rife that Iran has supplied the AvGas used to fuel the junta’s air force fleet that has relentlessly bombed civilian targets for the past five years.

A recent report by Amnesty International says the evidence points towards Iran, backed by a fleet of “ghost ships” and a supply chain “gone rogue,” that has kept the junta’s air force in the air.

“Five years after the coup, our analysis shows that the Myanmar junta continues to evade sanctions and find new ways to import the jet fuel it uses to bomb its own civilians,” the Amnesty report said, while adding “several indicators point to an Iran connection.”

The bombing campaigns have continued. A quick count from local dispatches suggests that some 39 civilians have been killed and a further 45 wounded by air attacks since late February. And lurking in the background, as always, is Russia.

Three Russian ships docked in Yangon on March 5 for a six-day visit, which sources close to the NUG say are dropping off weapons and potentially fuel, given Moscow’s close ties with Naypyidaw, which have been on a roll following a plan to furnish the junta with a small nuclear reactor.

The military line, as propagated by the military-controlled press, was that this is a “friendship visit,” underscoring the deepening military partnership between Moscow and Naypyidaw.

But as one Western security source, with close ties inside Myanmar, put it: “It’s no secret that Russia is desperately trying to evade sanctions and find markets for its oil. Myanmar is a logical choice and Moscow would be more than happy to fill any void left by Iran or anyone else.”

It’s all rich fodder for the USDP and the yet-to-be-named propaganda unit to work with.

Luke Hunt is a Southeast Asia correspondent for The Diplomat. He has spent three decades working in the region and produces the Beyond the Mekong podcast. He can be followed on Patreon and X – formerly Twitter.

Myanmar aviation fuel

U.S.-Israel war on Iran

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