Despite not having made it to parliament, The Opportunity Party has already been proclaimed a potential “kingmaker” following next month’s election.

That would see the newcomer party decide who governs if it ends up holding the balance of power – just as New Zealand First’s Winston Peters did, or appeared to do, in 2017.

Back then, it was genuinely hard to know whether Peters would lean left or right, until he announced he would go into a coalition with Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party to form a government.

But has Opportunity already made up its mind which party it wants to support in government? Does it even have a choice?

National Party leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity in forming his next government, assuming he gets another chance.

He points to Opportunity’s plan to introduce a land tax, and is encouraging centre-right voters to back National and not even think about supporting anyone else.

But any practically minded person can do the arithmetic: based on opinion polls, it appears Luxon may not be able to form a government without Opportunity’s numbers. Furthermore, Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong says she’s open to talking with........

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