Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.

At the 2025 federal election, the combined primary vote share for Labor and the Greens was 46.8%, while the combined share for the Coalition, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was 40.1%. In the two polls below, the total right vote is 49% and the total left vote 41–42%.

A national DemosAU poll for Capital Brief, conducted February 16–20 from a sample of 1,551, gave Labor 29% of the primary vote (down one since a mid-January DemosAU poll), One Nation 28% (up four), the Coalition 21% (steady), the Greens 12% (down one) and all Others 10% (down two).

No two-party estimate was given, but seat projections had Labor winning 76–85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, still enough for a majority but down from 87–95 in January. One Nation was winning 43–54 seats, up from 29–38, the Coalition 9–20 (10–22 previously), the Greens an unchanged 0–2 and all Others 3–7 (6–11 previously).

Anthony Albanese’s net positive rating was down three points to -17, with 46% giving him a negative rating and 29% positive. Taylor’s initial net positive was -4 (28% negative, 24% positive), up 14 points on Ley. Pauline Hanson’s net positive improved four points to -1 (38% negative, 37% positive).

In a three-way preferred PM question, Albanese led with 37% (down two), followed by Hanson at 25% (down one) and Taylor at........

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