In Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Donald Trump’s net approval has dropped to a new record low of -23.

In his forecast model, Democrats are the clear favourites to gain control of the US federal Senate at November 3 midterm elections, and overwhelming favourites to gain control of the House of Representatives.

If disruption caused by the Iran war continues until the midterm elections, with increased petrol prices and inflation, Republicans are likely to lose control of both the House and the Senate, perhaps with huge losses.

However, if the disruption eases again and petrol prices fall back before the midterms, I believe Republicans will do better than they are now and may retain control of the Senate.

I can say this because Trump’s net approval and the generic ballot were better for Republicans in early September, soon after a low in petrol prices.

In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is at a new record low -23.0. Currently, 60.4% disapprove of his performance and 37.4% approve.

Trump’s net approval was -19.7 in my September 14 article. It had improved to -18.7 on September 4 before falling back.

Trump’s net approval is below what any past president since Harry Truman had at this point in their term, with Trump’s first term the closest at -11.6.

On four issues tracked by Silver, Trump’s net approval is -13.0 on immigration, -28.3 on trade, -32.1 on the economy and -46.4 on inflation. Since my September 14 article, Trump’s net........

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