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NZ election poll watch: Opportunity holds as potential kingmaker in tight race

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07.10.2026

With a month to go to the New Zealand election on November 7, a Reid Research poll for RNZ has given the left bloc its first lead over the right in any poll since June.

Later the same day, a Verian poll for TVNZ’s 1News had the right holding its three-point lead from the same poll last week.

Conducted from September 24 to October 1 from a sample of 1,000 eligible voters, the Reid poll gave:

Labour 30.8% (down 1.8 points since the mid-August Reid poll)

National 25.9% (down 3.2)

Greens 14.8% (up 4.6)

NZ First 10.6% (down 1.3)

Opportunity 5.5% (up 0.2)

Te Pāti Māori 2.0% (down 1.0)

Combining the votes of the left parties (Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori) against the right parties (National, NZ First and ACT) gives the left a 2.1-point lead. (The right held a 3.3-point lead in the previous Reid poll).

This is the first lead for the left........

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