As Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Victorian premier four months before the state election, a Newspoll had Allan at -46 net approval, but Labor only trailed the Coalition by 52–48.

Legislation that reforms the Victorian upper house by scrapping group voting tickets is set to pass parliament this week.

There have also been four federal polls released since Monday. The combined vote for One Nation and the Coalition is 47% in YouGov and Essential, 47.5% in Morgan and 49% in Spectre.

Victoria’s new premier and Newspoll

Jacinta Allan resigned as premier in the wake of dismal polling and an ongoing corruption scandal. The Victorian state election is in late November.

Carroll’s unanimous endorsement by caucus avoided a Labor leadership election process involving Labor members that would have taken at least four weeks.

Despite Allan’s net approval of -46, Newspoll only had Labor behind the Coalition by 52–48, with One Nation’s 19% of primary votes lower than in other recent Victorian polls. With Allan out, Labor has a chance to win the election.

A Newspoll, conducted July 23–26 from a sample of 1,035, gave the Coalition 31% of the primary vote (down five since the November Newspoll), Labor 28% (steady), One Nation 19% (not previously asked for), the Greens 13% (down one) and all Others 9% (down 13).

After preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 52–48, a one-point gain for the Coalition. With Allan’s very low approval ratings, preference flows were likely to have favoured the Coalition more than Newspoll assumed.

Allan’s net approval was down four points to a dire........

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