What, exactly, is happening with Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City?

There have been endless resignations from his office, including the police commissioner, school chancellor and Adams’ top legal advisor. There are as many as five federal probes into his administration and campaign. On Wednesday, news broke that Adams has been indicted in a federal corruption probe—the first mayor in modern New York City history to be charged with a crime while in office. And on Thursday morning, federal agents swept through the mayor’s mansion to seize more of his electronics.

The indictment is reported to be part of an FBI investigation into whether the Adams campaign coordinated with the Turkish government and various Turkish groups to illegally inject foreign money into his run for office. But that won’t be clear until the indictment is unsealed.

The mayor has so far remained defiant and bullish on his innocence. He released a (potentially pre-recorded) video statement on Wednesday night that any of the charges that come out “will be entirely false, based on lies.”

In other words, it’s not clear exactly what’s on fire—or how much is burning—but there’s enough smoke to fill Madison Square Garden.

Adams is still running for re-election in a Democratic primary that will be held next June. But anything can change at any moment. And it’s worth noting that he is the most unpopular New York mayor in the history of Quinnipiac University’s polling, which dates back to the 1990s. Though mayors typically coast to re-election, Adams has at least four Democratic challengers already. Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor who resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal three years ago, is even contemplating a political comeback at Adams’ expense. And high-profile Democrats, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, are already calling on him to resign.

But even if FBI agents weren’t targeting his administration, Adams would be struggling. This is the mayor, after all, who is known for making many perplexing statements, holding up curious objects at press conferences, and pursuing unpopular budget cuts while behaving very oddly. He lacks, unlike his immediate........

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