Expertise can become a blind spot when conditions change faster than experience.

Success often increases confidence while reducing awareness of changing assumptions.

Intellectual humility helps leaders adapt without abandoning expertise.

Organizations learn faster when assumptions are tested continuously.

In May 2023, educational technology company Chegg faced a challenge that few leaders anticipated.

For years, the company had built a successful business around helping students access answers, tutoring, and learning support. Its leaders possessed deep expertise in education, technology, and customer behavior. Then generative AI entered the mainstream. Within months, students began turning to ChatGPT and similar tools for many of the same needs. Chegg's stock dropped sharply as executives acknowledged that AI was fundamentally changing how students sought help.

Stories like this reveal an uncomfortable truth about leadership.

The problem was not a lack of expertise. The problem was that the assumptions underlying that expertise changed faster than anyone expected.

In my work studying organizational disruption, I have focused on what I call Rogue Waves — sudden, high-impact shifts that reshape industries, markets, and organizations with little warning. These disruptions are rarely the result of poor leadership. More often, they occur because successful leaders are operating with mental models built for a world that no longer exists.

The challenge is not whether expertise matters. It does. The challenge is knowing when expertise is helping us — and when it is quietly preventing us from seeing what has changed

When Expertise Becomes a Blind Spot

Most leaders are rewarded for........

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