Many people think intelligent extraterrestrial life likely exists but assume others are skeptical.

Participants estimated a 67% likelihood of extraterrestrial intelligence but thought others would say 21%.

This gap reflects pluralistic ignorance—misjudging others’ beliefs keeps people silent.

For decades, conversations about UFOs—now often referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP)—have occupied an unusual place in public life. Many people are curious about the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence, yet most people are cautious about discussing them with others because of stigma and fear of being judged.

New research suggests that this hesitation may reflect our psychology rather than skepticism.

Most Believe in Extraterrestrial Intelligence

A recent study by Avi Loeb at Harvard University, and colleagues, surveyed 6,060 participants recruited through the Prolific research platform, which is widely used in behavioral research [1]. The sample consisted largely of highly educated adults, many holding college or graduate degrees.

Instead of asking a simple yes-or-no question about extraterrestrial intelligence, participants were asked to estimate the probability that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists somewhere in the universe. Respondents provided numerical estimates between 0% and 100%.

When researchers averaged the responses, participants’ mean estimate was about 67%, suggesting that on average people believe intelligent extraterrestrial life is more likely than not to exist.

Another way of examining the results highlights how widespread this belief is. The researchers found that about 95% of participants gave probability estimates greater than 50%, meaning they believed it is more likely than not that intelligent extraterrestrial life exists somewhere in the universe [1].

In other words, nearly everyone in the sample leaned toward believing intelligent life beyond Earth probably exists, even if their degree of certainty varied.

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