You can bet on climate disasters. Business is booming.

Traders are placing wagers on the likelihood of disasters, activists being jailed and oil depots exploding.

Hurricane Michael was the last Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. in 2018. Bettors are increasingly wagering money on climate-related events. | Gerald Herbert/AP

Will Iran’s main oil terminal get bombed this month? Will climate activist Greta Thunberg be arrested before July? Will the U.S. get pummeled by a Category 5 hurricane this year?

You can place bets on all of those questions through online prediction markets.

The emergence of markets related to the world’s failure to limit climate change illustrates the vast reach of Kalshi and Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction platforms. Last year, $239 million was traded on Kalshi’s climate markets — the fifth-most of any prediction category, according to data provided by the company. The volume of trading on its climate markets is on pace to grow to more than $1.2 billion in 2026.

© Politico