Urban fire risk, failing carbon markets, rising energy demand and accelerating polar change highlight the growing scale and complexity of environmental pressures.

Australian city fringes at high risk of LA-style bushfires

In the wake of the dramatic and devastating fires that destroyed many Los Angeles neighbourhoods in 2025, including many affluent areas, the Climate Council and the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action co-produced When cities burn: Could the Los Angeles fires happen here?. The very clear answer is that yes, they definitely could and every capital city is at risk. They all display the dangerous characteristics that made the LA fires so destructive and our own worst bushfires have exhibited similar unstoppable fire behaviour.

There were multiple climate change-related reasons why the LA fires were so destructive: hotter, drier conditions causing droughts, longer fire seasons and more dangerous fire-weather days; sudden swings from very wet to very hot and dry conditions (climate whiplash); dry brush and grass in hilly peri-urban terrain; strong winds; and more fuel following periods of above average rainfall. In addition, climate-fuelled fires are increasingly exceeding the limits of modern firefighting.

In Australia there is an increasing number of people at risk as more houses are built in fire-prone suburbs on the fringes of cities. Between 2001 and 2024, the populations of the urban fringe areas of our capital cities increased by between 24 per cent (Sydney) and 111 per cent (Melbourne and Perth). But it’s the actual numbers that matter. In round terms, the increases during this period and the actual numbers in 2024 were:

The authors make three recommendations:

Swift and deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions (what they call climate pollution) in Australia and worldwide.

Large investments by all levels of government in disaster preparation and community resilience (eg, hazard reduction, local disaster planning, education, higher building standards for new constructions, retrofitting older homes, evacuation centres) for all capital cities and regional centres.

Build emergency service and land management capacity at the interface of the bush and urban centres.

Protecting local communities from carbon market predators

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