Multiple polls place One Nation ahead of the Coalition, raising the prospect of an historic realignment on the Australian right.

Newspoll, Redbridge and Morgan polls all have One Nation second behind Labor, with the Coalition third. However, there are no Labor vs One Nation two-party estimates.

A national  Newspoll, conducted February 5–8 from a sample of 1,234, gave Labor 33 per cent of the primary vote (up one since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago), One Nation 27 per cent (up five), the Coalition 18 per cent (down three), the Greens 12 per cent (steady) and all Others 10 per cent (down three).

This is a record high for One Nation in any poll and a record low for the Coalition. But last week’s Redbridge and Morgan polls had One Nation leading the Coalition by seven and 4.5 points respectively. On current polls, One Nation is beating the Coalition into second place.

In a single-member electoral system like the House of Representatives, the consequences for a major party that falls to third would be brutal. On current polling, the Coalition would struggle to win ten of the 150 House seats.

As the Coalition is no longer second, no Labor vs Coalition two-party estimate was released by Newspoll. None of the three polls in this article have released a Labor vs One Nation two-party estimate. A late January  YouGov poll gave Labor a 57–43 respondent-allocated preference lead over One Nation.

Analyst  Kevin Bonham has Labor vs Coalition and Labor vs One Nation two-party aggregates using 2025 Senate preference flow data. He has Labor leading One Nation by 54.1–45.9........

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