SOUTH Asia is an unforgiving strategic chessboard, where a single misstep can reverberate across borders and reshape the regional balance of power.

Today, the drumbeats of confrontation between Washington and Tehran are louder than they have been in years. The United States has adopted a more openly coercive posture, marked by an expanded naval presence in the Persian Gulf and repeated assertions that “all options are on the table” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and internal stability. While much of the world treats this exchange as familiar rhetoric, its consequences would be anything but distant for Pakistan.

For Islamabad, this is not simply another episode of great-power rivalry. Pakistan’s geography does not allow the luxury of detachment. Sharing a nearly 900-kilometre border with Iran, it would be among the first countries to feel the shockwaves of any military escalation—whether through security pressures, economic disruption or humanitarian fallout.

The current phase of US–Iran tensions appears to be moving beyond the framework of “maximum pressure.” Recent statements from Washington suggest a shift away from containment toward open confrontation. History offers little reassurance. Even limited strikes could unravel an already fragile regional equilibrium. For Pakistan, the risks are immediate: a potential influx of refugees, heightened cross-border militancy and yet another setback to the long-delayed........

© Pakistan Observer